UEFA's Group 6 World Cup Qualifying competition is heating up as Croatia is neck and neck with Ukraine for second place and England is still in first with one more win needed to qualify.
Croatia failed to get 3 much needed points in their match against Ukraine on Saturday. They did gain 1 point as a result of a 2-2 tie at home in Zagreb. While Ukraine was in action on Wednesday against Kazakhstan, Croatia did not have a match scheduled.
Ukraine defeated Kazakhstan 2-1 on Wednesday giving them 3 points. This leaves them in second place with 11 points tied with Croatia. Croatia is till in second place after a superior goal difference breaks their tie with Ukraine.
Based on these recent results, here is how the Group 6 standings look right now with some of my own analysis (the percentage included is the superior points percentage):
1. England (7-0-0; 21 pts; 100.0%): England is in perfect form right now at the top of the group. They played two qualification matches this month in which they conceded no goals and scored 10 in total against Kazakhstan and Andorra. England only has 3 matches left against Croatia at home, Ukraine on the road, and Belarus at home. One more win and they are on their way to South Africa next summer. Their next qualifying match is not until September 9 against Croatia at home.
2. Croatia (3-1-2; 11 pts; 61.1%): Croatia has not been as lucky. They only had one match in their qualifying schedule this month and that was a 2-2 tie against Ukraine at home on Saturday-- a match they needed to win in order to dig themselves out of a deep hole that they put themselves in. Although Croatia did begin their qualifying campaign with a strong 3-0 win against Kazakhstan (which is pretty weak team I might add) at home, their second match was a 4-1 loss to England at home. Ever since then, Croatia was never really able to get back on track with a scoreless tie at Ukraine, a 4-0 win against a weak Andorran side at home, and a 2-0 away win against Andorra. With 6 matches down, Croatia has four left to go and it is not the easiest schedule. They get back to action on August 12 in Belarus, a team that Croatia should not take lightly. Belarus is a tricky team and although qualifying would be a long shot for them, they can act as a spoiler in the group. My prediction is that they tie against Belarus on the road. Croatia then goes back home on September 5 to play Belarus again. I expect a win out of this match. After this, they travel to London to play England. Croatia will have Eduardo da Silva back for this match and the English Premier League season would have started already so Eduardo da Silva should get a few matches in for Arsenal to warm up for this qualifying match. Injuries have screwed up Eduardo's chance to play in Euro 2008 so he is definitely eager to play for Croatia. Hopefully, nothing happens to him between then and now. My birthday happens to be on the day Croatia plays England in London so it would be awesome if Croatia can beat them although I understand that it is a long shot. Wayne Rooney, who was injured for the Euro 2008 qualifying match in which Croatia beat them and eliminated them from the competition, is in very good form with 8 goals scored already for England so this will be a very tough match for Croatia. The last match is away at Kazakhstan which shouldn't be much of a problem. With England almost unstoppable, Croatia should be focusing on keeping second place but this is easier said that done. Not all second place teams in the 9 qualifying groups in UEFA are guaranteed a place in South Africa. Only 13 teams out of a total of 53 teams competing are getting spots. This includes the 9 group winners+ 4 runner ups. These four runner ups are determined through a playoff round that will take place after the group stage is over. Only 8 of the 9 second placed teams can play in the two legged playoffs which will take place in November. However, since one group only has 5 teams (8 matches) and the rest have 6 (10 matches), an alternative way to rank the runner ups has been established: the teams that are in second place in group 1 through 8 (group 9 is the group with only 5 teams) will not have results against the last placed team counted so everything will be equal. With a rather tough schedule left to play and being that Croatia has already played and beaten Andorra twice, coach Bilic and company really have to play as well as they can and leave it up to fate. As it is now, Croatia is 9th out of the 9 second place teams. Mathematically, they are not eliminated from first place but they can only do it if England loses all of their remaining matches. Also, Croatia cannot lose or tie any of their matches. This scenario looks like a long shot so Croatia should set second place as their goal. If they lose to Belarus in their next qualifying match then Croatia can only qualify through the playoffs. Croatia should not only win but should win with high goal differentials to ensure that they have better results than the other second placed teams. If Belarus does win or tie any matches, they could play a part in spoiling either Croatia's or Ukraine's chances. Belarus is still very much in the race to South Africa.
3. Ukraine (3-1-2; 11 pts; 61.1%): Ukraine has the same record as Croatia, but a schedule that is a bit easier. Croatia wins the tie breaker because although the Croatians tied both meetings against the Ukrainians (0-0 in Ukraine and 2-2 in Croatia), Croatia has a better goal difference than them (+6 to Ukraine's +3). Ukraine also has 4 matches left: Andorra home and away, Belarus on the road, and England at home. Just like Croatia already did, Ukraine should be able to pocket 6 easy points against Andorra-- a loss or tie would be humiliating to Ukraine but good for Croatia, but Ukraine should be able to take care of business against the Andorrans. Ukraine opened up their qualifying campaign against Belarus at home. In this match, they had quite a bit of trouble finding the back of the net. It took all 90 minutes plus stoppage time in the second half to finally earn a penalty kick ending the match 1-0 for Ukraine (this is proof that Belarus is a tricky team as I stated already above). Ukraine does have to play England but they do have home field advantage. This may seem like a tough schedule, but while Croatia has Belarus twice and England at home, Ukraine gets to plays the worst team in the group twice and Belarus only once.
4. Belarus (3-2-0; 9 pts; 60.0%): Belarus is still very much in this race to qualify for South Africa. Any slip up from Ukraine or Croatia could give Belarus a chance to sneak through to second place. They do still have to play both Ukraine and Croatia at least once. It probably won't happen but at this point, I don't want to dismiss the possibility. However, I don't think Belarus will ever get enough points to make it into the top 8 of the second placed finishers. They also played only 5 matches so they still have half of their qualifying campaign in front of them. Their remaining schedule looks like this: Croatia home and away, Ukraine at home, Kazakhstan at home, and England on the road. England should be able to defeat Belarus, but Belarus could cause a little bit of trouble for the other teams.
5. Kazakhstan (1-6-0; 3 pts; 14.3%): Kazakhstan has officially been eliminated from the World Cup after a 4-0 loss to England. However, what Kazakhstan does in the 3 matches they have left to play could help Croatia. Here is how Kazakhstan's schedule looks: on the road vs Andorra, on the road vs Belarus, and at home vs Croatia. The match against Andorra means nothing since Andorra has been eliminated too. If Belarus beats Kazakhstan (they already did once 5-1 at Kazakhstan), it could complicate things for Croatia depending on how Croatia does in their two matches against Belarus. Belarus is currently only 2 points behind Croatia.
6. Andorra (0-7-0; 0 pts; 0.0%): Andorra is obviously eliminated with no wins or ties and only 3 matches left to play. None of Andorra's remaining schedule is easy. They are, after all, the worst team in the group so it makes sense. Two out of three teams that they have to play on their remainder of their schedule are teams that are still in the competition and not yet eliminated (they have to play (they have to play Ukraine twice). Their other match against Kazakhstan means nothing as mentioned above.
For more information and standings regarding Group 6, click here.
For official information about qualifying matches, groups, and news from FIFA, click here.
As I stated above, one of the second placed teams will be eliminated early and will not go to the play off to determine the final 4 qualifiers for next summer's World Cup. Below are the current standings for second place teams. Top 8 will go to the playoff round where they will play a two legged home and away aggregate series. I am only going to include the standings here. I will give my analysis in a future post.
1. Russia (4-1-0; 12 pts; 80.0%)
2. France (3-1-1; 10 pts; 66.7%)
3. Bosnia and Herzegovina (3-2-0; 9 pts; 60.0%)
4. Hungary (2-1-1; 7 pts; 58.3%)
5. Switzerland (2-1-1; 7 pts; 58.3%)
6. Ireland (1-0-4; 7 pts; 46.7%)
7. Northern Ireland (2-2-1; 7 pts; 46.7%)
8. Scotland (2-2-1; 7 pts; 46.7%)
9. Croatia (1-1-2; 5 pts; 41.7%
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