The European Zone of World Cup Qualifying is well under way with most teams playing at least 3 (some 4) matches already. Here is a group by group update.
The European Zone has 9 groups, 53 teams, and 13 slots for grabs at the 32 team final tournament. Groups 1 thru 8 have 6 teams and group 9 has only 5. The 9 group champions automatically qualify for the tournament. The top 8 runners up compete in a two legged home and away playoff round to determine who takes the remaining 4 spots. Since Group 9 only has 5 teams and therefore is at a disadvantage since they play two less games, the results against the last place team are discarded for the runners up in the other groups in order to even the playing field. Every team plays every member of their group twice.
Now that I've given you a short overview of how European qualification works, I will now get to a current analysis of each group and team:
Group 1
The groups seems to be quite lopsided and strange this time. Many groups seem to be dominated by traditionally weaker teams and stronger teams seem to be having a rush start. This group is a good example. Denmark, which is an okay team in my opinion, tops a group that includes stronger teams such as Portugal and Sweden. Hungary follows Denmark in second place while Portugal takes third. Sweden is in a disappointing 5th place after 3 matches while Malta is at the very bottom with 0 points. However, this may change very quickly as there is a lot of polarity in this group. The top 2 teams (Denmark and Hungary) are tied at 7 points. Hungary and Denmark also played once already to a scoreless draw so overall goal difference breaks the tie. Denmark has a difference of 6-2 (+4) while Hungary has a difference of 4-2 (+2). The teams at 3rd, 4th, and 5th place (Hungary, Portugal, and Albania ranked in that order) are currently tied with 5 points. Malta is at the bottom 0 points a -11 goal difference. Despite the polarity, I predict that Portugal will be the champion of this group. I think the rest of the group will be pretty tight with only 2 or 3 points separating each team. Denmark or Sweden will be vying for second place and Sweden will mostly get which will qualify them for playoffs. I cannot see Sweden not making it to the World Cup unless they get an extremely difficult playoff draw. I do not feel that Malta will ever pull of any kind of an upset so they will remain at he bottom with no points.
Group 2
Group 2 is possibly one of the weakest groups in European zone qualifying. Greece, a team that seems to qualify only for the Euro Cup and seems to choke when it comes to World Cup qualifying, has the best chances in this group. Switzerland is the only other team that may top the group. Israel, who I feel is not really a World Cup team, is good enough to cause quite a bit of damage to other teams in the group that have good chances. Other teams in this group are Latvia, Luxembourg, and Moldova.
Group 3
Group 3 does not have too many really strong teams either. Slovakia is currently at the top with 9 points after 4 matches (3 wins and 1 loss). Poland and Slovenia are 2nd and 3rd but are tied with 7 points. Northern Ireland and Czech Republic are also tied with 4 points but the tiebreaker goes Northern Ireland's way. It is quite strange that Czech Republic is so low in the standings in this group since they are probably the strongest team in the group. However, they have only played 3 matches while the majority of the group has played four so they will most likely get back on tract. San Marino is last with 0 points. In my opinion, although the group is not very strong, I feel that the competition for the first two spots will be tight. Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Poland will put up a big fight until the end and will most likely take the first four spots. Northern Ireland may win a few but I don't think they will compete well against these four teams. San Marino will remain at the bottom with no points.
Group 4
The strongest team in group 4 in Germany and is already 4 points ahead of Russia. The rest of the group isn't that impressive. Finland and Wales may win a few games at the expense of Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein. Germany will most likely take the top spot.
Group 5
Turkey, Belgium, and Bosnia-Herzegovina are most likely going to be the spoilers in this groups although I do not see any of them taking the top spot since Euro 2008 champion Spain is also in the group and will most definitely take that position. Estonia and Armenia are extremely weak teams, but Estonia might take a point out of teams like Bosnia-Herzegovina--a team that usually seems to got through periods of struggling in qualifying competitions.
Group 6
England and Croatia are the teams to watch in this group although Croatia has not played to its potential lately, but I don't think there is any question about Croatia qualifying. However, with England back to their regular form it will not be easy to take the top spot and Ukraine can cause some trouble to the Vatreni. I don't see much of a problem coming from Belarus, Kazakhstan, or Andorra. These tree are fairly weak. I have a feeling that England will most likely top this group. However, I think Croatia will at least tie England in London. Ukraine will be a close third while Belarus and Kazakhstan will be fourthh and fifth (in no particular order). Andorra will be in last place.
Group 7
This group is full of surprises. The once upon a time powerhouse France has been struggling since Zidane retired after the 2006 World Cup. Serbia, who has not qualified for Euro 2008 and was trashed by Argentina 8-0 in 2006, has had an amazing start and isat the top of the standings tied with Lithuania who is second with 9 points. Lithuania is another team that is not really that strong but has started out their qualifying campaign nicely. France is in third place and tied with both Austria and Romania who have fourth and fifth place respectively. Faroe Islands is last place with 1 point. It is going to be very interesting to see this group play out. Although they lost to France once already, I think Serbia will stay up in first place. I think France will make a fast comeback and fight for that spot as well. Lithuania will also fight to stay tight against Serbia and France. The rest of the standings will probably have Romania 4th, Austria 5th, and Farie Islands last.
Group 8
This might be Ireland's chance to qualify for a World Cup--something they have not done for a while. They are currently in second place with only Italy standing in their way. Bulgaria is third and four points away from Ireland. Montenegro is also in this group. After three matches, the Montenegrins have 2 ties and a loss. This is their first competitive tournament so it will be interesting to see how they will come out of this group at the end of qualifying. Georgia is tied with Montenegro on points but loses the tiebreaker due to goal difference. Cyprus is at the bottom with one point. I think Ireland could actually qualify this year and do so with dramatic fashion by taking first place in the group. Of courses, it will be a tight race against Italy, who, even if they do finish in second place, they will qualify unless they meet Croatia in the playoffs. Bulgaria and Montenegro will fight for third place. I have been quite amazed by some of Montenegro's results and they can take points away from of these matches. I don't see Georgia doing very well in this group. They'll probably do a little better or tie with Cyprus at the bottom of the standings.
Group 9
The strongest team in this group is the Netherlands who are currently undefeated in qualifying. The rest of the group does not impress me at all so Netherlands should qualify at the top with ease.
For current standings, click here.
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